All about the national and international grain market and how grain contributes to farm inputs and costs.
International and national summary
National background comments: report for the week ending 17th January, 2020.
The next update will be on Friday 24th January, 2020. Direct links to reports on each dairy region immediately follow this international and national summary for grain.
Driving Prices Up
CBOT wheat markets have continued to find a firmer tone throughout the beginning of the New Year. Recent geopolitical events as well as weather conditions for the northern hemisphere crops have driven the firmer tone for CBOT wheat futures.
- Industrial strikes in France may lead to a slower export pace from the EU’s largest wheat exporter, leading to CBOT wheat futures to expect an increased appetite for US wheat.
- News that there may be an export limit in Russia wheat exports beginning 2021, albeit at all, contributed to a firmer tone for CBOT wheat.
- Whilst, warm conditions in Russia may hamper winter wheat crop growth and dry and cold temperatures in the US also continue to support the firmer tone.
Driving Prices Down
The recent US and Iran conflict led to a softer tone for CBOT wheat futures, however this has been unable to halt the steady, gradual increase in world wheat prices seen in recent months.
- The recent signing of the US and China Phase One trade deal led to an underwhelming response from CBOT futures. Most markets were already aware of the details that would be announced, and a noticeable lack of specific detail has led to uncertainty and a softer tone for most CBOT markets other than CBOT wheat futures.
Global Trade News
The recent announcement at the White House of the signing of the Phase One deal between the US and China has led to a large amount of uncertainty.
- Specific details are still unknown with the agreement, in brief, stating that China are required to purchase US$80b of US agricultural goods over the coming two years.
- However, some Chinese officials have also announced that China will purchase an average of US$40b these purchases will be driven by market demand.
- The amount promised or not promised by either side is unimportant, the main determinant will be US exports, this will begin in February after the 30-day implementation period.
- The most recent GASC, Egyptian state buyer, wheat tender was won by Russia and Romania. Following the recent firmer tone in CBOT wheat futures this has been reflected in global prices with the GASC paying US$4/t than the previous tender, only a week prior.
- Harvest has been completed across Australia, with winter crop production for this season finishing slightly behind last season.
- Australian wheat production was lower this season in comparison to the 2018/19 season, while barley production was slightly higher.
- Rainfall is expected across most of the east coast over the next week, however this is unlikely to aid any summer cropping prospects.
- Most grain growers in the eastern states will aim to conserve subsoil moisture and use it for winter crop planting.
Price change in table below reflects moves since previous report (10th January, 2020)